Green Coffee Market in Week 37 of 2026: Arabica Falls as Robusta Recovers
Arabica and Robusta prices are moving in different directions. Brazil’s approaching harvest completion and forecasts that global coffee production could exceed consumption are pushing Arabica prices lower. Robusta prices, meanwhile, are rising on forecasts of heavy rain in Vietnam. Meanwhile, low certified Arabica stocks leave the market sensitive to supply disruptions.
Arabica prices fall while Robusta prices rise
ICE Arabica futures fell to around 287 cents per pound, their lowest level in roughly seven weeks. Robusta, in contrast, recovered toward USD 3,550 per metric ton.
The divergence reflects different supply factors. Stronger Brazilian shipments and expectations of increased coffee production are easing shortage concerns and pushing Arabica prices lower. Robusta prices are rising on concerns that heavy rain in Vietnam could damage the crop and disrupt shipments.
Coffee production could exceed consumption
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) outlook cited in the CCR report estimates global production in 2025/26 at 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% from the previous season. Consumption is forecast at 180.6 million bags.
This implies a potential surplus of approximately 3 million bags. If realised, it would be the first surplus after four consecutive deficit seasons. If production exceeds consumption, the risk of an overall coffee shortage will ease. However, individual coffee varieties and lots may remain in short supply.
Brazil increases exports
Brazil’s harvest is nearly complete, with Arabica harvesting estimated at around 97%. New-crop coffee is reaching warehouses and the physical market, while producers are selling more actively.
Brazilian coffee exports in August reached approximately 206,600 metric tons, up 44.6% from August last year. According to the partner report, this was the strongest monthly volume in around eight months. The increase confirms that improving supply is translating into actual shipments.
Rainfall improves prospects for the next crop
Widespread rain has reached Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions. Good soil moisture and extensive flowering are improving the outlook for the next Arabica crop.
However, a positive start to flowering does not determine the season’s outcome. Follow-up rainfall will be needed for fruit development. Weather therefore remains important even as the broader supply outlook improves.
Low Arabica stocks limit downside potential
ICE-certified Arabica inventories fell to approximately 218,500 bags. Coffee available for exchange delivery remains extremely limited despite the improvement in Brazil’s harvest and export flows.
This leaves room for sharp short-term rallies. A projected global surplus and low certified inventories are not contradictory: the overall production-consumption balance is different from the amount of coffee immediately available for delivery through the exchange.
Robusta responds to weather risks in Vietnam
Forecasts of heavy rain in Vietnam’s Central Highlands raised concerns about possible flooding and crop damage. These are risks rather than confirmed losses.
ICE Robusta stocks remain high at around 5,000 lots, and the medium-term supply outlook is still comfortable. More significant new-crop volumes are expected in Vietnam from November onward. Until then, excessive rainfall could cause temporary disruptions and support prices.
For buyers, the priority is to assess lower Arabica futures alongside the availability of individual lots, while monitoring Vietnamese weather and new-crop arrivals for Robusta.
Based on market reports by Central Coffee Roasting (CCR).
